April 7, 2010: 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Seasonal Update
The Colorado State Tropical Meteorology Project has increased its predictions for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. There will be significantly more activity than the average 1950-2000 season with 15 named storms, 75 named storm days, about 8 hurricanes, 35 hurricane days, 4 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes, and 10 major hurricane days.
Current moderate El Nino conditions are expected to transition to neutral conditions. The weakening El Nino conditions combined with a very strong anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic are the primary reasons the project is increasing its forecast.
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December 2009: 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Early Predictions
The hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project predicts above-average activity in the Atlantic for 2010 beginning June 1st.
The December 2009 report estimates approximately 11-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes occurring during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which is more typical of years in an active era, such as the 1995 season. The forecast utilizes a statistical methodology derived from 58 years of past data and climate-related global and regional predictors. The effects of El Nino or La Nina also have an impact on the frequency of hurricanes. El Nino creates warmer water, and stronger winds that rip topical depressions apart before they become tropical storms or hurricanes. La Nina creates cooler water, resulting in more hurricanes. Based on these facts, it is forecasted that El Nino conditions now in effect will weaken.
The early forecast for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season issued in December can been seen as a good estimate of future storm activity. This is the 27th year that the Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project has released a hurricane season forecast. The team is now utilizing a new statistical forecast methodology for early December predictions, in hopes of increasing the skill and accuracy of the report.
Seasonal updates of the 2010 hurricane season are due out on April 7th, June 2nd, and August 4th of 2010.
2009 Hurricane Season kind to the U.S., pleasing insurance companies and property owners alike!
Forecasters told us that global weather patterns are imposing a greater uncertainty in the 2009 hurricane season and as the season draws to an end we see that the actuality of the number of storms falls well below the predictions. Forecasters give two reasons for the relatively quiet season in the Atlantic basin:
1. The mid-latitude westerly winds were much farther south than normal and this southward displacement caused three upper level wind features across the Gulf Caribbean and Atlantic to also be shifted south.
2. El Nino unfolded and became more prominent through summer and fall, resulting in increased west wind shear across the Caribbean and southwest tropical Atlantic and an anomalous sinking motion across the same area. Neither of these favored tropical cyclone development.
The following is a list of the nine named storms and two tropical depressions the Atlantic Basin has experienced so far in the 2009 hurricane season:
#1 Tropical Depression #1 May 28-29 35 mph
#2 Tropical Storm Ana Aug. 11-17 40mph
#3 Hurricane Bill Aug. 15-24 135 mph
#4 Tropical Storm Claudette Aug. 16-18 50 mph
#5 Tropical Storm Danny Aug. 26-29 60 mph
#6 Tropical Storm Erika Sept. 1-4 60 mph
#7 Hurricane Fred Sept. 7-12 120 mph
#8 Tropical Depression #8 Sept. 25-26 35 mph
#9 Tropical Storm Grace Oct. 5-6 70 mph
#10 Tropical Storm Henri Oct. 6-8 50 mph
#11 Hurricane Ida Nov. 4-10 105 mph
The greatest defense against the unpredictability of any hurricane season is preparedness. Take action now! Make sure your home is hurricane proof.
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